By Michael Smith (Veshengro)
Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne agreed in late May 2011 to develop an “Oil Shock Response Plan”, following a meeting he had with the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES).
ITPOES, which was formed by Arup, B&Q, Buro Happold, Solarcentury, SSE, Stagecoach and Virgin, and campaigns for greater awareness of the economic threat presented by dwindling oil supplies, said that the meeting had proved "constructive" and had helped to advance the energy security dialogue.
Specifically, Huhne agreed that DECC and ITPOES would work together on peak oil threat assessment and contingency planning.
Details on the collaboration are yet to be agreed, but the group is expected to be tasked with modeling some of the impacts that could result if, as growing number of experts fear, global oil supplies peak within the next five years.
After the ITPOES report that the previous government tried to bury it is about high time that the UK government woke up and smelled the roses and – beofer anyone mentions it – nuclear is NOT an option.
Members of the taskforce said they would also explore steps that would need to be taken now to protect the UK economy "if we knew that the oil price would soar to $250 in 2014".
Oil prices have remained above $100 a barrel for much of the past few months, driven by rising demand and supply fears related to continuing unrest in Libya and the Middle East.
The elevated prices yesterday prompted the International Energy Agency to take the unusual step of calling on the OPEC cartel to increase production in an effort to bring down prices and protect the fragile global economic recovery.
However, there are growing numbers of experts in and outside the oil industry who have voiced fears that there is insufficient spare capacity for oil producers to respond easily to growing demand, with even figures such as IEA chief economist Fatih Birol suggesting that global oil supplies could peak in the near future.
The members of the Taskforce also revealed that Huhne had called on them to present their concerns to the Chancellor and Treasury – a meeting that the ITPOES is now seeking.
The Department of Energy and Climate Change said that the department will publish a formal “call for evidence” from interested parties in the near future as it works to develop the new “Oil Shock Response Plan”.
Preparing to create a contingency plan is one thing but when will government be prepared to actually tell the people that the proverbial might be about to hit the air circulation device and that there may no longer be fuel available to continue their love affair with the car or at least none that the ordinary man or woman will be able to afford.
In essence it does not matter as to whether we run out of the black stuff or whether its products just become so expensive that they are totally out of the reach of ordinary mortals; the era of the personal motorcar is about to come to and end.
But that is but one issue as the impact that higher and higher fuel prices will have on transportation costs is something that we cannot even imagine as yet. Food and every other commodity will become more and more expensive and as far as food is concerned it will need to have to be grown locally again; at distance where it can be delivered by horse and cart.
As someone used to say “we have seen nothing yet” and it is therefore high time that we all made our own contingency plans and prepared. Yes, that prep word from the Y2K time again and indeed this time it might be “the end of the world as we know it” – or at least “the end of the world as we have known it for the last century”.
We must prepare for it now and we must all create our own Oil Shock Response Plan.
© 2011
