by Michael Smith (Veshengro)
UK economic growth will have slowed down to a rate of somewhere between 1.5 and 2% by year end
Managing Director Mike Illes is able to extrapolate an analysis of the UK’s economic growth performance through his study of the number and types of commercial model inquiries and the level of castings and bookings.
This is because of the large and broad spread of clients and the fact that model agency bookings take place early in the advertising process.
As soon as confidence increases, companies advertise to get one-up on their competition. As the confidence of business leaders decreases, advertising and especially new creative work becomes one of the first budgetary items to be cut.
On analyzing MOT Models bookings for the first six months of 2014, key indicators show:
1. Inquiries in Q1 (January to March) 2014 were well up on the same period in 2013 but have fallen back dramatically in Q2 (April to June) 2014, being 10% lower compared with Q2 2013.
2. There have been far fewer higher value booking enquiries than 2013.
3. Castings for the first half of the year are 4% lower than in the same period of 2013 and the number of models taking part in castings has also reduced by 9%.
4. The number of bookings in the first half of the year are about 5% down although the total value is almost identical.
5. Q1 bookings increased in both value (+21%) and number (+8%) in 2014 compared with the same period in 2013 but Q2 was the reverse with a drop in both number (-6%) and value (-15%).
Mike Illes, Managing Director at MOT Models said, “The drop in bookings is significant because suddenly in Q2 2014, the business fell away dramatically which indicates a serious loss of confidence on the part of the UK economy. The reasons could be multiple but the severity of the drop in business confidence is very significant.
“We now expect to complete 2014 at the same level of business as 2013 which will be disappointing given the excellent end to 2013 and the promising start to 2014.
“At the end of Q1, we predicted a 2.5-3% growth in the UK economy in 2014. However, we now anticipate that UK economic growth will have slowed down to a rate of somewhere between 1.5 and 2% by year end.”
Until fairly recently this economic information has been provided to friends of the MOT Models business but recently it has become more formalised and published on an occasional basis. In February 2013, the MOT analysis indicated a growth for the nation’s economy of between 2.5 and 3%. At the time the Bank of England and IMF were cutting their forecasts for growth to substantially less than this. The MOT Models track record shows that their forecasts are right in excess of 90% of the time.
MOT Models is a leading London model agency, providing excellent models to top photographers, advertisers, designers and production companies. You will recognize many MOT models in so many worldwide advertising and commercial campaigns. MOT Models has a head office in Berkhamsted and a sister agency, called Zone Models in London’s Covent Garden.
And this prediction comes just when the government is trying to have everyone believe that the GDP and the economy is on the way to “recovery”. As we all know they are somewhat (understatement) economic with the truth and the entire notion of economic growth anyway is a fallacy as it is just not sustainable.