by Michael Smith
According to the venerable “Old Farmer's Almanac”, which was first published in 1792 and is the oldest continuously published periodical in the United States, the world is set for a "big chill," possibly a mini-ice age.
The 2009 edition, published earlier this month, predicts that the Earth already has entered a sustained period of global cooling.
If the finding from Australia are correct an the temperatures did indeed plateau out as they said in about 2001 then it could be a fact that “global cooling” is about to begin and if the previous periods of climate change of the Earth are anything to go by this cooling could be rather rapidly, much faster than the warming ever was. Going out from that we could see the Thames frozen to its full depth again in a couple of centuries – not that either of us are going to see it.
True to form, the almanac also includes tips on gardening and how to stay warm all winter with just one log, the latter piece is somewhat tongue in cheek though as it recommends the use of the log in this way: “Toss the log out of an upstairs window, run downstairs and outside to retrieve it, run back upstairs, then fling it out of the window again. Pretty soon you're going to be very hot and you don't need to turn the heat on.”
"The next 20 years, it's going to be colder," said Sarah Perreault, assistant editor of the Old Farmer's Almanac. "We do recognize that (global cooling) could be offset by greenhouse gasses and other human effects on the earth, but we're trending toward the cool period now."
The almanac is predicting a period of global cooling partly due to the lack of sunspots, a situation which some scientists believe causes cooling on the sun and, subsequently, the earth.
Perreault said the staff still uses the weather prediction method devised by almanac founder Robert B. Thomas, using a combination of solar sciences, meteorology and climatology.
"Obviously we have more technology now," she said. "We have the benefit of having more information than he had, but it's basically the same."
She said the method is not exact. Since the almanac is published so far in advance, it cannot take into account the most up-to-date information on Pacific Ocean oscillations El Nino or La Nina, for instance.
Still, the almanac has an 80 percent success rate for its weather predictions, Perreault said.
In its early years, the almanac was one of the chief sources for weather forecasts for farmers and other businessmen.
In addition to weather predictions for each day of the year, the Old Farmer's Almanac also includes gardening tips about such things as planting milkweed to attract Monarch butterflies.
The forecast cool period of the next 20 years, as predicted by the Old Farmer's Almanac might then just be the precursor, with hot spells in between, as it used to be in the previous cycles of climate changes, to a real mini-ice age that could, as I said before, lead, once again, to the freezing of the Thames, a tidal river, and to the coats of this country having its waters partly frozen. Something that none of us have seen thus far, I am sure.
© M Smith (Veshengro), September 2008
<>
Global cooling predicted Old Farmer's Almanac
